Week 4 picks: Big games for Utah and ASU, lopsided Pacific Northwest rivalries and Oregon State’s scheduling dilemma

Welcome the Hotline s weekly picks against the point spread published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the bulk intriguing matchups across the West Last week we were - Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider com Picks are for entertainment purposes only unless they aren t The th Civil War set for Saturday afternoon in Eugene likely won t be the last Oregon and Oregon State are finalizing an agreement to continue the series into the next decade according to a description by OregonLive The move is sure to upset a faction of Beavers constituents who believe the traitorous Ducks should be dropped from OSU s schedule permanently Particular want no part of the school that helped blow up the Pac- Others are loath to sign up for annual blowouts Good thing the inmates aren t in charge because ending the rivalry would be pretty close to the worst move Oregon State could make during this tumultuous stretch The shifting landscape of college sports could very well leave the Beavers without the option to lure teams from the power conferences to Corvallis It s not Oregon-or-bust quite yet but that point is fast approaching The SEC in recent weeks agreed to add a ninth conference encounter but kept in place the requirement to play a total of games against Power Four schools meaning each crew has only two spots available for non-conference opponents outside the ACC Big and Big Ten The likelihood any SEC company would be willing to journey to Corvallis Close to zero Don t be surprised if Mississippi cancels its series with the Beavers in and just as Florida reportedly has canceled its series with Arizona State and Alabama reached a mutual agreement with West Virginia to cancel their two-game tango Would Big Ten teams not named Oregon venture to Corvallis Unlikely They don t want to threat the loss or deal with the trip and a large number of lack openings on the schedule That includes Washington The Huskies budget for seven home games per season When a rivalry e g the Apple Cup is part of the equation there s no room for another non-conference road battle The math doesn t work What about ACC and Big teams Well the Beavers have a two-game series with Brigham Young lined up but one match is in Provo and the other is in Las Vegas Wake Forest is playing in Reser Stadium this year with Oregon State headed to Tobacco Road at the end of the decade to complete what is only a two-game series Will other ACC schools consider Oregon State Not if the conference eventually follows the SEC s lead and adds a ninth conference championship Yes the Beavers have Texas Tech a Big favorite scheduled for Reser Stadium next season But the two-game contract - was agreed to seven years ago long before conference realignment and playoff expansion And if the much-discussed crossover series between the Big Ten and SEC becomes reality the ACC and Big could respond by forming a deal of their own further reducing the pool of power conference opponents for the Beavers Put another way Oregon State faces a triple-whammy when it comes to luring power conference teams to Corvallis in the future Yes the schools must be willing to accept the competitive peril and give up a precious lucrative home meeting But it s also about shrinking supply Oregon State s home schedule won t have nearly the appeal in the new Pac- than it did in the conference s previous iteration but the pressure to sell tickets and move merchandise and create an exciting game-day context for fans is only increasing The Beavers should pounce on any opportunity to bring a high-profile opponent to Reser Stadium even if that organization is the enemy down the road To the picks Season record - - Five-star special - Games involving FCS teams not included All times Pacific Texas Tech at Utah Kickoff a m on Fox Comment Gigantic conference opener for the two betting favorites to win the Big How will Utah quarterback Devon Dampier fare in his first true test since transferring from New Mexico We re skeptical of his ability to make the downfield connections necessary for critical chunk yards The Utes cannot win if forced to advance four yards at a time possession after possession Pick Texas Tech Oregon State at Oregon Kickoff p m on Big Ten Setup Comment Oregon will take every step necessary to win the event while not humiliating the Beavers and thereby doing its part to help preserve Trent Bray s job prevention The Ducks don t want OSU to make a coaching change the current situation suits the folks in Eugene just fine Pick Oregon State Michigan - at Nebraska Kickoff p m on CBS Comment The Wolverines were hardly impressive at Oklahoma two weeks ago Granted the Cornhuskers aren t as good as the Sooners but they are close enough for us to believe Nebraska will win the competition outright and heap another load of pressure on Michigan coach Sherrone Moore Pick Nebraska Brigham Young - at East Carolina Kickoff p m on ESPN Comment We had almost forgotten about BYU which opened with blowout wins over Portland State and Stanford and was idle in Week This is a dangerous assignment for the Cougars not a true trap competition but close and it s reasonable to wonder if they will be fully locked in with conference play starting next week Pick East Carolina Illinois at Indiana Kickoff p m on NBC Comment Both teams are ranked which explains NBC s decision to slot the contest in prime time and one of them could emerge as a second-tier playoff contender behind the Big Ten heavyweights Despite the location we think that unit will be the Illini Pick Illinois Arizona State at Baylor Kickoff p m on Fox Comment The second intriguing Big duel of Week features two more teams with designs on the conference title The Sun Devils previous road experience was suboptimal a loss at Mississippi State and they would be wise to avoid repeating their mistake an over-reliance on the passing battle Establish the run early and everything flows from there Pick Arizona State Related Articles The Apple Cup s uncertain future Shifting landscape offers no guarantees beyond Holy Outcome Utah-Texas Tech Devon Dampier passing encounter key for Utes Bowl projections Oregon to CFP USC to Alamo Utah drops to Las Vegas Cal has a quarterback phenom and a manageable schedule GM Ron Rivera s goal is within reach Power rankings SEC on top ACC staggers Big overtakes Big Ten Washington - at Washington State Kickoff p m on CBS Comment The second half of the Pacific Northwest Week rivalry doubleheader should be more competitive than the matchup in Corvallis as long as the Cougars don t commit a spate of turnovers They had five in the blowout loss at North Texas last weekend The Huskies have too much of everything especially tailback Jonah Coleman for this to be close in the fourth quarter The revenge factor should send the margin well past the point spread Pick Washington Cal - at San Diego State Kickoff p m on CBS Sports Structure Comment SDSU lost badly at Washington State two weeks ago but had extra time to prepare for Cal s visit If the undefeated Bears avoid turnovers and miscues on special teams they should remain one of the breakout teams of the season But that s a limited too a large number of points for our liking the Bears are dependably a risky pick as double-digit favorites Pick San Diego State Michigan State at USC Kickoff p m on Fox Comment The last time Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith was on the sideline in the Coliseum his Oregon State Beavers walloped USC We don t expect another win for Smith over his hometown band but the Spartans will provide plenty of resistance despite the ultra-late kickoff for their body clocks Pick Michigan State Fresno State - at Hawaii Kickoff p m on Spectrum Sports Comment We expect Fresno State to emerge as the surprise company in the Mountain West and make a run at the conference title They should handle their business in Honolulu and cover a spread that s several points too low The betting citizens hasn t recognized the speed with which coach Matt Entz is rebuilding the initiative Pick Fresno State Straight-up winners Utah Oregon Nebraska East Carolina Illinois Arizona State Washington Cal USC and Fresno State Five-star special Michigan State Quarterback Aidan Chiles is from Long Beach and will remind the Trojans why they should have recruited him The point spread is about points too high Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - - Follow me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline