Saturday Night Five: Great escapes define Week 12 as CFP options expand for the Big Ten, narrow for the Big 12

Instant reaction to developments on the field Quantifying the chaos The th Saturday of the regular season brought the expected level of heart-stoppers and gobsmackers Third-ranked Texas A M charged back from a -point halftime deficit to beat South Carolina and remain undefeated No Georgia Tech rallied from down early in the fourth quarter to edge Boston College and avoid its second loss No Michigan kicked a walk-off field goal to beat back Northwestern All in all six ranked teams lost and five won by less than a touchdown It was a stellar day for Notre Dame which effectively clinched another College Football Playoff berth And for the SEC where Oklahoma s accomplishment at Alabama propelled the Sooners into an advantageous position for a College Football Playoff berth And for the Big Ten where two playoff hopefuls dodged big trouble The ACC also emerged in better position after Duke lost thereby erasing the nightmare scenario That the four-loss Blue Devils would win out and claim the conference title but finish ranked below two teams from the Group of Five leaving the ACC without a CFP bid It wasn t an ideal Saturday for the Big however And that s where our recap begins The path narrows Typically a source of mayhem the Big produced only one unexpected effect Arizona toppled No Cincinnati which had two weeks to prepare and an open road into the conference championship competition But the Wildcats churned for yards dominated the second half and left the Queen City with a - accomplishment that lent clarity to the race Texas Tech and BYU are alone atop the standings each has one conference loss and will meet in Arlington if they win out That shouldn t be laborious for the Red Raiders who play struggling West Virginia in their finale The journey is more treacherous for the Cougars who visit Cincinnati next weekend But results across the Power Four conspired to undermine the Big s quest for an at-large berth to the playoff Notre Dame s convincing accomplishment at Pittsburgh moved the Irish within two wins over lowly Syracuse and Stanford of securing one of the seven at-large spots The Irish were No this week and won t fall below the CFP threshold if they keep winning Meanwhile Oklahoma s win at Alabama strengthened the Sooners resume and gave the SEC yet another two-loss unit that could gobble a bid With Notre Dame in the field and six SEC teams sitting pretty two or fewer losses the likelihood of a two-loss Big gang making the at-large field is dwindling The optimal finish for the conference would be Texas Tech - losing a taut well-played conference championship The Red Raiders would have a more compelling circumstance than any other two-loss Big group Even Utah which walloped Baylor and BYU which hammered TCU The Holy War rivals have lopsided losses to Texas Tech on their resumes that could be problematic if the selection committee matches them against two-loss teams from the SEC and Big Ten Narrow escapes The Big Ten had reason to celebrate as all five of its playoff contenders were victorious Two of them are locks Ohio State and Indiana One is on syllabus for a bid and presumably has chosen cushion Oregon Two are in must-win mode USC and Michigan The Trojans rallied from an -point halftime deficit to beat Iowa - while the Wolverines edged Northwestern - on a field goal with no time remaining Both teams are - and cannot afford another loss if they hope to sneak into the CFP via the at-large field Each has a daunting challenge remaining The Trojans visit Oregon then host UCLA The Wolverines visit Maryland then host Ohio State If both lose the Big Ten likely will have just three playoff participants If both win out the situation gets gripping The Big Ten s two-loss teams would find themselves in a resume showdown with a slew of - teams from the SEC There very well could be five or six two-loss teams competing for three or four at-large spots Confusion down below One tier below the power conferences the situation is muddled The CFP format reserves one automatic berth for the highest-ranked organization from the Group of Five conferences But South Florida the only G- company to crack the CFP rankings this week lost to Navy With three weeks until the -team field is reported there are no undefeated teams in the Group of Five and only two with one loss North Texas and James Madison Could either sneak into the CFP JMU has a slight edge in the metrics e g strength-of-record But a handful of two-loss teams seemingly remain in contention including Tulane which beat Duke and Northwestern along with Navy and San Diego State And we should remind fans of a tantalizing possibility Related Articles Mailbag Grading the Pac- s media rights deals Big Ten expansion UCLA and SoFi Sagapolutele s future and more Recruiting roundup West Coast exodus WSU stays hot ASU s big weekend WSU fires AD Anne McCoy What s next for Cougars as new Pac- looms College Football picks Alabama USC cover Oregon struggles Texas rises Pac- signs deal with USA Infrastructure rounding out media rights package If Navy - wins the American championship the Midshipman could be selected as the Group of Five representative on Dec one week before they play Army in the season finale Pac- bowl math The Pac- legacy teams remain tied to the five bowl games Alamo Las Vegas Holiday Sun and LA that partnered with the conference when it was intact Seven have clinched bowl bids Arizona ASU Cal Oregon USC Utah and Washington Four are ineligible Colorado Oregon State Stanford and UCLA which was eliminated on Saturday One is alive Washington State The Cougars thumped Louisiana Tech - on Saturday and must win one of their final two games to qualify for the postseason They visit James Madison next week ESPN s College GameDay reportedly will broadcast from JMU s campus and finish the season at home against Oregon State Those tasks are not equivalent The Cougars - will be substantial underdogs at JMU and heavy favorites over Oregon State If they had to sweep the odds would be long But with so much at stake they should handle the Beavers who are winless on the road this season after a decisive loss at Tulsa Given the circumstances in Pullman with the new coaching staff and overhauled roster and Independent schedule a postseason berth even with a - record would make the season a resounding success Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - - Follow me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline