Pac-12 bowl projections (Week 4): Oregon to the CFP as Utah slips and Arizona State starts a brutal six-game stretch

The Pac- dissolved months ago but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall the bowl lineup The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse albeit with one critical change Instead of using conference record to establish the pecking order overall record is the determinant Each week the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all teams Last week s rankings can be detected here With three games down two paths are available to Arizona State in its role as the defending Big champion The Sun Devils could produce another stellar season in which they contend for the conference title and a playoff berth and win nine or games the trajectory that several in and around Tempe expect Or they could regress ever-so-slightly with no single explanation for the backslide Perhaps it s a combination of injuries bad bounces and the sequencing of opponents on the schedule catching a unit at just the wrong time in the wrong place For all but a handful of teams across the country seasons play out on the margins ASU had more of the margin calls break right than wrong last year That could flip this fall through no fault of the players and coaches In the world where regression is reality for the Sun Devils the season hinges on the middle portion the portion that begins this week at Baylor and includes preponderance of the best teams in the Big After Baylor comes TCU After TCU comes No Utah After Utah comes No Texas Tech After Texas Tech comes Houston After Houston comes No Iowa State Based on results to date the Sun Devils will be narrow favorites or slight underdogs in all six Which means the likelihood of winning four is essentially the same as the likelihood of losing four Which means a organization that could finish - also could finish - if just enough little things go wrong Within the world where Arizona State regresses slightly is a land where the bowl math becomes tricky Where the last-minute loss at Mississippi State becomes a nagging number on the ledger and the postseason outlook dims to an unexpected degree The Sun Devils didn t draw the the greater part complex lineup of Big opponents accomplishable but it s close All six look capable of contending All six look equipped to match ASU yard for yard and point for point into the fourth quarter where a minimal plays make all the difference Maybe the Sun Devils are as good as last year if not better and cruise into November with a series of lopsided victories and their sights on the CFP But the alternate scenario which revealed itself in Starkville two Saturdays ago remains manageable And if that becomes ASU s reality the next six games will frame the endgame for the defending champs To the bowl projections College Football Playoff Company Oregon Big Ten at-large Comment If the Ducks - win in Happy Valley next week they will move to the automatic qualifier side of the ledger until then we see Penn State as the Big Ten favorite But as long as Dan Lanning and Co finish with fewer than three losses they should be a no-brainer selection for the committee Alamo Bowl Band USC Comment The Hotline continues to view USC - as not quite good enough to reach the CFP but plenty good enough to be within reach for the Alamo Bowl which will jump at the chance to select a first-time participant with a brand name and a head coach from Lubbock Las Vegas Bowl Gang Utah Comment For the first time this season the Hotline isn t projecting the Utes - to reach the CFP Their offense was clunky enough at Wyoming to be cause for concern entering a arduous stretch with showdowns against Texas Tech Arizona State and Brigham Young all in the next month Holiday Bowl Club Washington Comment Had you gamed out a scenario in the winter spring of when Jedd Fisch took over a decimated roster that Year would end in the Holiday Bowl the greater part UW fans would have been quite happy But months later it seems the Holiday would be viewed by specific as a consolation prize for the Huskies - Sun Bowl Organization Cal Comment The Bears - are tracking for the largest part prestigious bowl invitation they have received since the Jeff Tedford era Win the games they re supposed to win and that should become a reality LA Bowl Band Arizona State Comment This placement will naturally be interpreted as a swipe at the Sun Devils - when in fact an eight- or nine-win crew could land in the LA Bowl if the legacy schools only produce one CFP participant and a logjam results ESPN bowl Company Arizona Comment This would be the First Responders Gasparilla or Armed Forces Bowls and the Wildcats - took a great leap forward with their win over Kansas State last week The upcoming schedule is manageable enough for three more victories And if two legacy schools make the CFP there would be room for everyone else to move up Related Articles Cal has a quarterback phenom and a manageable schedule GM Ron Rivera s goal is within reach Power rankings SEC on top ACC staggers Big overtakes Big Ten Big Ten power rankings Week Ohio State on top as UCLA search begins Big power rankings Week Iowa State Utah Texas Tech on top Pac- power rankings Fresno State on top as Texas State slips Non-qualifier Club Colorado Comment The double-digit loss at Houston was ugly and we expect the situation in Boulder to get worse before it gets better if it gets better For the first time in Deion Sanders tenure the long-haul forecast isn t bright Non-qualifier Crew Oregon State Comment Worth repeating The Trent Bray era in Corvallis is strikingly similar to the DeShaun Foster era in Westwood with former players being elevated to the top job long before they were ready The Bruins terminated Foster on Sunday The Beavers - apparently will have more patience with Bray But how much more Non-qualifier Gang Stanford Comment For the purposes of this exercise we purchased a pair of Cardinal-colored glasses from www youneverknow com and examined the upcoming schedule Even then it was impossible to spot more than five wins Non-qualifier Company UCLA Comment If you re wondering about UCLA s prospects for a bowl bid next season under the new head coach here s a nugget The non-conference opponents are San Diego State and Nevada at home and Cal on the road The Bruins were supposed to play Georgia but the series was cancelled Non-qualifier Company Washington State Comment We don t hide from bold forecasts we embrace them But picking a squad that lost by points to North Texas to reach the postseason requires a leap of faith even the Hotline cannot make Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - - Follow me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline