Many Colorado ski resorts had below-average snowfall last winter. Is a repeat in the offing?

Long-range weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable and current situation signals offer little guidance but it appears Colorado s ski resorts may be in for a winter much like last season Multiple saw below-average snowfall for the season OpenSnow meteorologist Sam Collentine is guessing this winter will be similar based on a key evidence factor that influences Colorado weather surface-water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean The phenomena known as El Ni o and La Ni a can influence whether storm systems originating in the Pacific favor the northern or southern U S El Ni o occurs when those ocean water temperatures are above average La Ni a happens when they are cooler than average Right now they are in the neutral range and Collentine reported that is very similar to last year We had a monster storm cycle right around Thanksgiving Collentine stated in an interview We were at record snowpack especially around the central mountains Areas around Crested Butte Aspen and Marble saw upwards of inches in about hours We were at record pace in early December but then we were high and dry for five to six weeks We really didn t see any snowfall for an extended amount of time If we didn t have that early season storm it seemingly would have been a historically low year Collentine added In February and March we had a scarce storms but in the April-May timeframe there weren t any of those big spring storms It ended up being a pretty below average winter The long-range Colorado forecast for December through February issued by the Context Prediction Center of the National Weather Organization is calling for near-normal temperatures in the northern Colorado mountains and a to chance of above-average temperatures in the southern mountains The forecast also says there are equal chances of precipitation being above or below normal And even in years when the El Ni o or La Ni a effect is vital which is not expected to occur this winter it can be an unreliable gauge because Colorado is situated between the prevailing northern and southern storm tracks We re in that middle ground where we can do well off either pattern but we don t do really well off either pattern if that makes sense Collentine explained What s great about Colorado is that we have high elevation and we do well off a variety of storm tracks With elevation the snow will come it will stay cold and the skiing stays great Related Articles Colorado ski resort opening dates for - season Collentine revealed meteorologists will be watching to see where stubborn high pressure ridges set up over the west coast The biggest thing we re looking at is where that ridge pattern is going to set up and how that will affect the overall pattern for Colorado Collentine disclosed Is it going to set up to block Colorado for much of the winter like it did last year Or are we going to get into that middle area where we get storms from the southwest but also sneaky storms from the northwest There is one thing Collentine is sure about I can tell you with certainty that we will have snow this year he noted Skiing will be good You just have to pick the right days Subscribe to our weekly newsletter The Adventurist to get outdoors news sent straight to your inbox