Mailbag: Grading the Pac-12’s media rights deals, Big Ten expansion, UCLA and SoFi, Sagapolutele’s future and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly Send questions to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com and include mailbag in the subject line Or hit me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline Chosen questions have been edited for clarity and brevity The financial terms of the Pac- s media rights agreement with CBS The CW and USA Framework were not disclosed which I have never heard of with a media deal announcement Is it way lower than projected Or are they possibly waiting until the Mountain West announces the financials of its deal first NateJones I seriously doubt the Mountain West s media rights negotiations impacted the Pac- decision to keep mum Could the ongoing litigation over the poaching penalties and exit fees have played a role Perhaps But when there s a shred of doubt the Hotline typically leans into Occam s razor The simplest explanation is correct And in this circumstance the simplest explanation is the financial terms of the three agreements aren t what the rebuilt conference aimed for when this process began Because if the revenue figure was worth celebrating the Pac- would have located a way to leak the terms just like every other conference in the history of college sports media deals Having commented that there is a load of context to include in our discussion starting with the original projections and reasonable range of valuation Based on conversations with sources throughout the process our understanding is the nine schools were given a wide range of media rights valuations by both the advisor on expansion Handle and the advisor on media rights Octagon And those figures depended to a large extent on the makeup of the conference The projected valuation was not the same with Memphis Tulane and South Florida and perhaps UTSA forming an eastern arm and spreading the footprint across four time zones as it was without those schools for example What s more there was ongoing confusion in both general comments and leaked information over the projected distributions for the media rights component as opposed to the total annual payouts which include College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament revenue Once it became evident Memphis and Co would not be involved the Hotline set million to million per school per year as our projected range for the media rights piece Now that the process is complete our hunch per industry sources to be clear they have not seen the final contracts is the valuation landed on the lower end of that range But even there more context is required for two reasons We don t know the specific terms of Texas State s agreement The Bobcats are a partial-share member but for how much and for how long Whatever revenue they don t collect increases the shares of the other schools Pac- Enterprises the conference s production unit will handle dozens of football and basketball games for The CW and USA Organization The cost of those productions it s presumably several million dollars per year at least will impact the Pac- s bottom line and create a net revenue figure And in the interest of transparency Our projected range of million-to- million per school was based on a net revenue figure Over and above those components keep this in mind The Pac- is creating a performance fund in which postseason participants keep an outsized percentage of the revenue earned That money is part of the annual total distributions from the conference not the media rights revenue stream Until there s fact-based reason to believe otherwise the Hotline views the entire pursuit with a dose of nuance The Pac- didn t reach the media rights valuation level it sought but every home football challenge will be on linear television Dollars matter but so too does exposure Not being on ESPN or Fox is a miss for media attention but the ability to set every kickoff time prior to the season is a hit for fans If we re handing out grades the Pac- clearly doesn t deserve an A or D Whether it gets a B or C depends on the details that are not yet known With football teams being the smallest Power Four conference what number of teams do you think the Pac- requirements in order to be taken seriously brycetacoma We ll start by saying there is no football membership total that will elevate the new Pac- to the level of the ACC Big Big Ten and SEC The conference was relegated to the second tier the moment eight schools publicized their departures on Aug So let s address the relevant question Is there a membership total that would optimize the Pac- s ability to become the best of the non-power conferences The answer is unequivocally no It s not about quantity it s about quality The rebuilt Pac- is better off remaining lean and mean than adding schools for heft Why Because schedule strength and quality wins are vital to the College Football Playoff selection process In order for the Pac- champion to grab an automatic bid it must be ranked higher than the winners of the American MAC Mountain West Conference USA and Sun Belt That s best achieved by avoiding low-level competition that deflates vital metrics If the conference cannot find a ninth or th school that maintains or elevates the quality of play it should stand on eight If the Big Ten signs the private capital deal does that lock in the conference with members through or does it have a pro rata clause to add schools JimSkin First it depends on how various schools sign the private capital deal USC and Michigan are opposed If the conference moves forward the signees will have their grant-of-rights locked up until while the Trojans and Wolverines would become free agents in Of module we aren t certain the terms that have been announced to this point would be the same without the two blue bloods involved It s hard if not impossible to believe UC Investments would value the conference in the same manner With or without USC and Michigan the Big Ten would retain the option to expand at the end of the decade when its media rights contract cycle comes to an end However the barrier for entry might be more complex to clear The proposed capital deal creates revenue shares for both the Big Ten conference office and for UC Investments creating two mouths above and beyond the member schools Any additions would need to carry enough media value to make expansion worthwhile and increase the revenue for the shareholders or if USC and Michigan aren t involved Then again newcomers could invariably agree to partial-share membership status Either way the private capital deal won t seal off the expansion option Leaving the Rose Bowl Good or bad idea for UCLA PDawg It s not good or bad It s terrible The Bruins won t attract more fans to SoFi Stadium just because it s miles closer to Westwood than the Rose Bowl Is the location easier for UCLA ticket-holders on the Westside Yes but it s less accessible for all the alums living in the San Fernando Valley Also the Rose Bowl is a piece of UCLA s identity Moving into an NFL Stadium that s a sparse miles from USC will merely add to UCLA s traction trouble In fact it s such a terrible idea that the Hotline believes it s mostly a negotiating ploy to force the Rose Bowl to adjust the terms of the lease And we ll continue to believe that right up until a move to SoFi becomes legally binding With UCLA leaving the Rose Bowl do you see a scenario where the Rose Bowl challenge eventually moves to SoFi BakerMeow Never say never in college sports but that seems incredibly unlikely And we sure as hell hope it never happens It would be like the president living somewhere other than the White House But if the Bruins do in fact vacate the Rose Bowl there could be changes to the stadium s usage to account for the lost revenue It s manageable Rose Bowl and Pasadena executives would seek events for the facility perhaps concerts or other football games in order to make up for the lost income Let s hope the situation doesn t come to that for the sake of everyone involved And that includes college football fans Is Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham staying or going arizstatefan Dillingham reportedly recounted his players and staff in the last few days that he has no interest in leaving ASU this winter That came as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention Dillingham grew up in metro Phoenix and attended ASU it s part of his DNA He made that clear last winter with the terms of his contract extension Instead of seeking more money he leaned into guard and longevity with the rollover clause that extends the deal to a maximum of years In all but a sparse instances the Hotline takes a skeptical view of coaches who proclaim their loyalty and commitment Dillingham s situation is one of those meager Unless something goes haywire internally with the university s commitment we expect him to remain with ASU through the end of the decade After all interested schools in the SEC or Big Ten cannot dangle a viable playoff berth because Dillingham has already been to the CFP with ASU He knows it s attainable in Tempe By every metric the SEC is deeper than the Big Ten But the Big Ten is a competitive conference with good football teams and not every SEC matchup is a battle between behemoths Am I pushing back too hard on the pushback against the Big Ten Jon J Our sense is the pushback against the Big Ten is partly if not largely rooted in the conference s CFP expansion ideas Nobody outside the Big Ten thinks expanding the playoff to using the automatic-qualifier model is good for the sport In that regard and others for instance the transfer portal window the Big Ten has staked out positions that run counter to the other conferences It has spent an immense amount of time on an island in the strategic sea over the past year In terms of the competitive narrative the Big Ten is accurately viewed as being at least as strong as the SEC at the top But as the question indicates the SEC has vastly more quality depth The middle and lower thirds of the Big Ten don t compare to the equivalent teams in the SEC The disparity in depth could be on display when the CFP field is selected Dec and the change in the committee dynamics might help the SEC Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek has taken over as chair for Baylor s Mack Rhoades who stepped down this week for personal reasons The Hotline has long concluded the chair holds considerable albeit subconscious influence on NCAA selection committees We saw that last year with the Big Ten receiving favorable outcomes at every turn while Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel was chair Will it be the same with the SEC now that Yurachek is in charge Why can t USC work with the Big Ten to ensure that the years it plays Notre Dame in South Bend correspond with the seasons they have four conference road games The Trojans could still play five conference games and two non-conference games at home They wouldn t even need to move the Notre Dame tournament from October Sirtrojan That isn t the issue The Trojans already visit Notre Dame in the years they have four Big Ten road games For example this year The issue is the date The Trojans want to move the odd-year trip to South Bend out of October and the heart of conference play to the early weeks of the season But that plan doesn t necessarily work for the Irish who have high-profile matchups on a regular basis in the first half of September and are wary of overloading their schedule Related Articles Recruiting roundup West Coast exodus WSU stays hot ASU s big weekend WSU fires AD Anne McCoy What s next for Cougars as new Pac- looms College Football picks Alabama USC cover Oregon struggles Texas rises Pac- signs deal with USA Structure rounding out media rights package CFP rankings BYU s loss Utah s schedule create narrow playoff path They opened with Miami and Texas A M this season lost both and have been in must-win mode ever since not a scenario they want to repeat USC-Notre Dame is valuable to the Big Ten and good for the sport We don t sense the conference office is an insurmountable obstacle in terms of moving the competition as long as any change doesn t cause issues for other schools What are the chances of Cal hanging on to quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele after this season michael budd The Hotline has been of the mindset all along that Cal s odds for keeping Sagapolutele one of the the majority coveted freshman quarterbacks in the country were better than the national media narrative suggested After all Sagapolutele already experienced the transfer portal when he de-committed last fall signed with Oregon practiced with the Ducks prior to the Rose Bowl and then realized the fit wasn t right and transferred to Berkeley He made the mistake once Why danger another bad situation Sagapolutele went masses with his commitment to the Bears on Thursday telling Hawaii News Now I want to stay here This is where I want to be Could his mind change if a blue blood swoops in with a massive financial offer in December Sure But we view that as the less likely outcome The Bears will offer enough in revenue sharing and NIL deals to be competitive there might even be a hometown discount involved That revealed Sagapolutele s commitment assuredly will factor into Cal s decision on coach Justin Wilcox and his staff The Bears - could fall short of general manager Ron Rivera s stated threshold for success eight or nine wins But if the quarterback and the head coach are a package deal we don t know if that s the event but it seems like a reasonable assumption then the guess here is that everyone will be back for Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - - Follow me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline