Kurtenbach: My predictions for 49ers-Falcons — Can Mac Jones survive the Falcons’ onslaught?

We ve got a Sunday Night Football matchup in Santa Clara that feels less like a primetime showcase and more like a MASH unit evaluation The - ers are broken Fred Warner is gone for the season So is Nick Bosa Brock Purdy is still sidelined Ricky Pearsall is too That s just a scarce of the countless plenty of names The Niners defense is reeling and the offense is sputtering Now the - Atlanta Falcons a band that s won two straight come to town with the NFL s scrimmage yards leader in Bijan Robinson and a quarterback in Michael Penix who isn t afraid to let it rip San Francisco gets George Kittle back which is the only piece of good news they ve had all week But with Mac Jones running the offense and Tatum Bethune trying to fill the unfillable shoes of a Hall of Famer this meeting isn t about style It s about survival Here are the four things that will decide this battle and my prediction The Obvious Move Related Articles Kurtenbach Kyle Shanahan once compared him to a -year-old Now Kendrick Bourne is carrying the Niners The ers run competition was once the envy of the NFL It s been grounded Kurtenbach Fred Warner s season-ending injury is a emerging point for the ers season Studs and Duds ers had too plenty of duds to overcome Fred Warner s injury Baker Mayfield Kurtenbach Three predictions I got wrong about the first-place ers Deommodore Lenoir s experiment at outside corner hasn t worked out so far Uneventful is being kind Regrettable is far more accurate Now with starting and upstart nickelback Upton Stout injured the Niners are forced into a decision Do they stick with the experiment and plug in the unproven Chase Lucas in the slot Or do they absolutely move Lenoir back to the position where he was All-Pro caliber With Fred Warner done for the year this shouldn t even be a debate Lenoir is the alpha of this defense now You need your best most of physical athlete closer to the action not stranded on an island he s proven he can t defend The smart play the only play is putting Darrell Luter on the outside and sliding Lenoir back inside It s the one move that might indeed provide the spark this reeling defense so desperately demands The Streak Ends The ers have set an NFL record albeit a deeply embarrassing one consecutive games without a single interception I ll bet the streak ends Sunday Here s why The Falcons offense while talented is predictable They do a poor job of differentiating their run and pass looks Combine that with a young hyper-confident quarterback in Michael Penix who loves to test tight windows on first-read throws and you have an offense that can be fooled This isn t about the Niners pass rush suddenly finding its form This is a schematic opportunity Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has a chance to sell out create confusion and bait a young QB who thinks he can make every throw The Niners are desperate They re going for broke and this week they ll certainly get a pick This Isn t Kittle s Battle Related Articles ers keys to beating Falcons in prime-time spotlight minus Fred Warner ers injury outlook Brock Purdy is out so is Ricky Pearsall but George Kittle returns Kurtenbach Kyle Shanahan once compared him to a -year-old Now Kendrick Bourne is carrying the Niners Ready or not it s up to ers Tatum Bethune to step in for Fred Warner ers Robert Saleh texts Fred Warner You ain t dead and neither is young defense Everyone sees that George Kittle is back and expects a fantasy football explosion Pump the brakes This Sunday isn t about Kittle it s about Kyle Pitts The reason is simple Warner s season-ending injury isn t just a talking point it s a gaping wound in the middle of the ers defense Look at the tape from last week Before Warner was carted off the Buccaneers punted on three of their first four drives After he left Tampa averaged yards per play and never punted again The middle of the field once Warner s no-fly zone is now wide open And that s exactly where Pitts makes his living He won t be facing the best coverage linebacker in football He ll be facing Tatum Bethune who was exposed in coverage the moment he stepped on the field in Florida Conversely Kittle runs straight into an Atlanta defense that has been statistically the best in the NFL against tight ends allowing a laughable yards per match to the position I think he ll beat that number but he won t match Pitts output Kittle s value on Sunday is as a blocker for a run match that s stuck in the mud His statistical ceiling is capped Pitts ceiling against this Warner-less defense is limitless Mac Attack The Falcons do the preponderance No group in the NFL blitzes more Atlanta brings extra rushers nearly percent more often than any other squad Mug fronts simulated pressures and back-end rotation Expect it on almost every single snap This is the entire meeting And it s a recipe for accident for a ers squad that has been anything but impeccable at the line of scrimmage this season The numbers don t lie Mac Jones completes only percent of his throws against the blitz this season ranking th in the league He s even worse in yards per attempt at which is bottom-of-the-barrel Yes Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are the perfect answers for a hot read But can this offense survive on a diet of quick dumps Is that a nutritious offensive plan I ll bet not If the Niners can t protect Jones or if Jones can t make Atlanta pay for their aggression and there s no sign he can it s going to be a long long night My Competition Prediction The Niners coaches do enough to make this challenge engaging but Atlanta will force more mistakes and there s little chance Robinson stays quiet I d expect this to look a lot like the Tampa Bay match Give me the same outcome -