Holy Score: The CFP selection committee’s treatment of BYU isn’t as bad as it looks (because of how the Cougars looked)

If it s November BYU must be getting hosed That s the prevailing sentiment in Provo and every nook and cranny of Cougar fandom The College Football Playoff selection committee hates BYU It hated the Cougars last year when they were the lowest-ranked two-loss band from a power conference and it clearly indisputably hates the Cougars this year In the CFP rankings distributed Tuesday BYU was No the lowest-ranked one-loss gang and in fact the only one-loss squad outside the top The Hotline is not here to condone the committee s process which is highly flawed or to justify the way BYU - is being treated We re here to explain it as best achievable using years of close observation Our modus comprehendi includes thorough readings of the committee chair s transcripts that are provided each week following his teleconference with reporters discussions with former committee members and numerous background interviews with industry sources who have been briefed on committee machinations But before we start one nugget of context No media outlet was more critical of the committee s therapy of BYU last year than the Hotline We devoted several columns to the topic and offered reams of supporting evidence On Nov the Hotline addressed the Big s destiny as a one-bid conference based on BYU s placement in the initial rankings and noted Brigham Young - has two wins over ranked opponents SMU and Kansas State yet the ninth-ranked Cougars are five spots behind Miami - which has one win over a ranked opponent and four spots behind Texas - which has zero wins over ranked opponents On Nov we published a column titled Holy Number BYU is getting a raw deal from the CFP selection committee and we have the facts to prove it The column wasn t entirely data-driven there was a morsel of opinion mixed in We chuckled at the sight of the Cougars being slotted behind SMU the situation is pure comedy On Dec we examined how BYU s fate in the CFP rankings in particular its placement relative to SMU should prompt the Big to reassess its strategy The Big contender with the best strength-of-schedule and the best strength-of-record and the best accomplishment over a Power Four opponent and the best overall resume in the conference isn t even playing for the Big championship Put another way We are assessing the committee s medicine of BYU this season from the perspective of having skewered the committee for BYU s placement last season And in full candor the Hotline doesn t view the situations as identical The rehabilitation last year was worse Granted the Cougars aren t receiving an entirely fair shake in the rankings this fall but the situation isn t as egregious as it was in for one reason There is no equivalent to the SMU outcome BYU isn t spots behind a unit it beat head-to-head on the road To this point the Cougars are winless against the teams slotted above them Tuesday evening They have played one Texas Tech and lost badly In fact the outcome of the Nov collision in Lubbock is vastly more damaging to BYU than fans realize Let s attempt to consider the situation from the committee s perspective The Texas Tech showdown took place just four days after the initial rankings were disclosed rankings that placed the undefeated Cougars in the seventh position one spot ahead of the one-loss Red Raiders At the time BYU was the lowest-ranked undefeated club from a power conference but had played a fairly weak schedule with one win over a Top opponent The chance to assess the Cougars and Red Raiders directly was ideal for the committee which could judge which group was the best in the Big and whether either or both or neither might be worthy of an at-large berth on selection day Dec And the Cougars failed miserably They were altogether overpowered in the - loss that could have been far worse if the Red Raiders had stayed on the gas in the fourth quarter The Cougars didn t look like they belonged on the same field as Texas Tech Even worse they didn t look like they belonged in the playoff This committee cares deeply about the visuals That became evident with the initial rankings Nov when chair Mack Rhoades who has since stepped down was required the following How much do the eye test and the things that you guys see and believe while watching the games take weight in comparison to the actual material Rhoades response We refer to it as art and science I think the art is watching the crew on film and tape and how good they are how physical they are up front offensive line defensive line play how good are they up the middle their quarterback play their skill players and then certainly contemplating and looking at metrics And in situation there was any doubt about the importance of one specific metric margin-of-defeat CFP executive director Rich Clark addressed that very topic with reporters this week There s a difference when a squad gets beat - versus a club that gets beat by a walk-off field goal Clark disclosed Tuesday evening in response to a generic question about the margin-of-defeat factor There s dependably an assessment of how well they played in the match and if they do lose how badly did they lose Were they competitive in the meeting or were they not I would say that it s a factor BYU lost badly BYU was not competitive So yes that performance had a greater impact on BYU s profile than a single loss especially for a committee that clearly leans into the eye test Now outraged fans are surely aware that the gang ranked one spot above the Cougars Alabama opened the season with a loss to Florida State which is at this moment - and closer to the bottom of the ACC than the top It s a bad loss for the Crimson Tide that s getting worse by the week But Alabama has a stronger collection of wins than BYU including a road mastery over a top-five company Georgia and three victories over ranked opponents No Georgia No Vanderbilt and No Tennessee whereas BYU has just two No Utah and No Arizona What s more Alabama has a significantly stronger strength-of-schedule than BYU while BYU has a slightly better strength-of-record In other words the respective resumes and eye tests are close which is reflected in the one-spot disparity in ranking Related Articles Pac- bowls CFP format saga continues USC to Alamo Utah to Las Vegas Big Ten power rankings Top five unchanged as favorites roll not that the conference is boring but well Big power rankings Texas Tech and BYU on top as Utah s playoff prospects at stake in next rankings release Cal fires Justin Wilcox What s next amid frenzied hiring field Pac- power rankings San Diego State solidifies its hold Boise State rises Fresno State falls And guess where the current cutoff line is positioned Between Alabama and BYU If the CFP began currently the Crimson Tide would be the last group in and the Cougars would be the last organization out We ll say it again BYU did not look like a playoff unit in the biggest encounter of its season It wasn t just a loss It was a you-don t-belong-in-our-club loss And that isn t going to change folks Barring absolute mayhem BYU s only path into the CFP is through the Big championship Handle UCF this week take down Texas Tech in a rematch in Arlington next week and claim the automatic bid that accompanies the trophy The at-large path appears blocked for BYU and that has been the matter for two weeks Is the process more subjective than it should be Yep Do committee members make it up as they go along Absolutely Does brand bias exist in the selection process favoring the SEC and Big Ten No question It s a flawed system and BYU once again has been left with the short straw But if you re attempting to parse injustices the Hotline would argue the committee s cure of the Cougars was more egregious last season when a head-to-head road win seemed to count for nothing than this season when a head-to-head road loss appears to count for everything Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - - Follow me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline