College football picks: USC and Alabama cover, Georgia and ASU struggle in loaded Week 12 action

Welcome the Hotline s weekly picks against the point spread published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most of intriguing matchups across the West Last week we were - Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider com Picks are for entertainment purposes only unless they aren t The old Mountain West and the new Mountain West are performing at a level unmatched by any conference this season not on the field but in the sportsbooks Only teams in major college football have covered the spread in at least percent of their games Five trace their roots to the Mountain West Four are current members San Diego State - vs spread Hawaii - Utah State - and Boise State - - The fifth is a former member Utah - Success against the spread typically moves in lockstep with upside surprises with the handful of teams each season that outperform expectations And that s certainly the scenario with San Diego State Hawaii and Utah State The Aztecs and Rainbow Warriors are already bowl-eligible this season while the Aggies are one supremacy away All three had losing records last year But there could be an additional element involved in spread success or failure the transfer portal Roster changes are complicated enough for the oddsmakers to track at the highest level of the sport in the ACC Big Big Ten and SEC On the tier inhabited by the Mountain West American and Sun Belt multiple of the newcomers were either reserves in the Power Four or moved up from the FCS all of which makes personnel changes exponentially more formidable to monitor and assess It s something to watch next season when the rebuilt Pac- comes online There very well could be a substantial disconnect between the oddsmakers perception of specific teams and the on-field reality To the picks Season record - - Five-star special - All times Pacific Minnesota at Oregon Kickoff Friday at p m on Fox Comment The Ducks are fresh off a huge win at Iowa but face a short turnaround in their playoff push while Minnesota is a different form of fresh The Gophers haven t played since Nov They don t have the firepower to keep pace with Oregon for the full minutes but should hang around long enough to cover the sizable spread Pick Minnesota Arizona at Cincinnati Kickoff a m on FS Comment After securing a bowl berth with the biggest win of coach Brent Brennan s tenure the Wildcats must approach one of the toughest challenges in the sport a long flight and early kickoff against an opponent that has two weeks to prepare Either Cincinnati pounces early and dominates or the Wildcats deliver a important upset given the circumstances We don t see any middle ground Pick Arizona Notre Dame - at Pittsburgh Kickoff a m on ABC Comment No event this weekend has greater playoff implications from coast to coast If the Irish win they are effectively a lock for the CFP and would gobble one of the seven precious at-large berths The Panthers have been unbeatable since changing quarterbacks to freshman Mason Heintschel but are overmatched This feels like too multiple points which might be precisely the point Oddsmakers want action on the Panthers Pick Notre Dame Oregon State - at Tulsa Kickoff a m on ESPN Comment With just two wins all season and a latest loss to Sam Houston the reeling Beavers would not be favored over numerous FBS teams But Tulsa has tanked since the early upset of Oklahoma State five consecutive losses The Hotline doesn t agree with the spread Oregon State has fully mastered the art of finding solutions to lose Pick Tulsa West Virginia at Arizona State Kickoff a m on TNT Comment ASU is without quarterback Sam Leavitt and star receiver Jordyn Tyson and faces a second-tier but improving opponent that just now won at Houston Mountaineers coach Rich Rodriguez can scheme with anyone and should find a way to keep this from turning lopsided Pick West Virginia Oklahoma at Alabama Kickoff p m on ABC Comment One of the majority of impactful Week games is a revenge opportunity for the Crimson Tide whose loss in Norman last season kept them out of the playoff Quarterback Ty Simpson and Co are playing too well to be stopped even by a defense of Oklahoma s caliber Pick Alabama Iowa at USC Kickoff p m on Big Ten Grid Comment The Trojans are very good at home just ask Michigan and should run the ball effectively on a Hawkeye defense that could not stop Oregon s ground championship last weekend Unless USC participates heavily in its own demise or coach Lincoln Riley calls pass plays in the expected downpour the playoff charge should continue Pick USC Utah - at Baylor Kickoff p m on ESPN Comment Both teams had two weeks to prepare but only one Utah is building momentum as the season progresses as results against a common modern opponent suggest The Utes battered Cincinnati in late October right away after Cincinnati battered Baylor Add the playoff stakes to Utah s motivational tool kit and this should not be close down the stretch Pick Utah Purdue at Washington Kickoff p m on FS Comment The Huskies are in recovery mode after the atrocious loss at Wisconsin and face just the right opponent to get back on track Purdue isn t as good as Illinois or Rutgers which lost in Husky Stadium by a combined points If this is close when the fourth quarter begins something will have gone very wrong for UW Pick Washington Texas at Georgia Kickoff p m on ABC Comment A massive championship for the CFP race given that Texas has two losses although the Hotline is not convinced No would necessarily eliminate the Longhorns Imagine the outrage if - Texas makes the CFP but a - Big band does not Will we see good Arch Manning or bad Arch Manning If the former this could be the battle of the year Pick Texas Related Articles Pac- signs deal with USA Architecture rounding out media rights package CFP rankings BYU s loss Utah s schedule create narrow playoff path CFP rankings Ohio St on top Notre Dame safe and ACC takes another hit Analysis Brett Yormark ESPN College GameDay and Big media strategy How Pitt-Notre Dame impacts CFP hopefuls in Big Ten Big UCLA at Ohio State Kickoff p m on NBC Comment The slumping Bruins face the majority talented defense in the country a unit allowing just points per championship nobody is close But we wonder about Ohio State s urgency against a third-rate opponent and with the Michigan championship looming in two weeks Feels like a relaxed domination for the Buckeyes just not by points Pick UCLA Louisiana Tech at Washington State Kickoff p m on The CW Comment This is tantamount to a must-win meeting for the Cougars who are two short of a bowl berth They have three games left but one at James Madison presents a next-level challenge If WSU solely takes care of the Bulldogs on Saturday night and Oregon State in the finale it will be bowling once again Pick Washington State TCU at BYU Kickoff p m on ESPN Comment This line is undoubtedly influenced by BYU s blowout loss last week at Texas Tech because the Cougars should be favored by a touchdown over an opponent that hasn t played particularly well on the road just lost at home to struggling Iowa State and is one-dimensional offensively all pass no run Against the Cougars especially in Provo that s trouble Pick BYU Boise State at San Diego State Kickoff p m on CBS Sports Framework Comment Massive event in the Mountain West that carries playoff implications The two-loss Aztecs possess a narrow path into the CFP but must win out and hope the moon and the stars align The three-loss Broncos will be without injured quarterback Maddux Madsen against one of the best defenses in the land Pick San Diego State Straight-up winners Oregon Arizona Notre Dame Tulsa ASU Alabama USC Utah Washington Texas Ohio State Washington State BYU San Diego State Five-star special Washington Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters faces his former club he was fired by Purdue months ago and should have his unit ready to stand tall against an overmatched opponent Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - 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